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Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #248

SPACE Digest                                     Volume 13 : Issue 248

Today's Topics:
        Humanity's Launch Window, final draft
               Not about space (sorry)

Administrivia:

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----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: 6 Mar 91 21:53:43 GMT
From: hpfcso!hpfcdc![e-mail]  (Alan Silverstein)
Subject: Humanity's Launch Window, final draft

Here is the final (for now) draft of my essay, "Humanity's Launch
Window", a troff -mm document.  Thank you to all who responded to my
earlier posting.  I included in the sharchive below a second, flat
document that incorporates most of the feedback mailed to me.

These documents are not copyrighted.  Please feel free to distribute
them far and wide.  I intend to do that myself.

I haven't had time to follow this newsgroup.  It appears a discussion
spawned from my earlier posting and I missed it.  Sorry about that.

-- Alan Silverstein

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.\" Version 4, 910306
.\" Printing this paper requires troff -mm.
.\" ----------
.\" A simple, short page header:
.de TP
.sp 3
..
.\" ----------
.br
.S 16
.ce 1
.B "Humanity's Launch Window"
.\" ----------
.S 12
.sp
.ce 2
Alan Silverstein
.\" date:
\*(DT
.\" ----------
.sp
.P
.B "Five billion years from now."
That's when the Sun will expand into a red giant star.
It will engulf and vaporize the Earth.
All of our dreams, inventions, creations, artifacts, and remains
will become a mingled gas.
Also our pollution, landfills, war machines, inner cities,
and petty differences.
The thought is both reassuring and humbling.
Everything we affect is headed for ultimate oblivion as a hot gas...
unless before then we are able to \(em
move off the Earth;
move the Earth;
change the Sun's life cycle;
or make something
.B really
exciting happen.
.\" ----------
.P
.B "Four and a half billion years."
That's how long it took for self-awareness to appear on the Earth.
We seem to be the first Earth species capable of departing the planet.
It took over four thousand million years
for life on our world to reach this point \(em
for our ``launch window'' to open.
.\" ----------
.P
.B "Many thousands of people, all peacefully cooperating."
That's what it takes to launch a payload from the Earth.
Discovery of the Americas by Europeans required a few sailing ships.
The exploration could be accomplished and the exploitation (ethical or not)
begun by perhaps fifty people in one lifetime.
A successful space program is much, much more demanding.
.\" ----------
.P
Wonders beyond comprehension await us beyond our Earth.
To grasp those riches requires enormous investment.
It takes raw materials and the technology to render them.
It takes many, many people, at peace with each other in a stable society,
wealthy enough to make investments whose return is measured in generations.
.\" ----------
.P
.B "Thirty years."
That's how long humanity's ``launch window'' has been open.
Our precious Earth is crowded.
Our raw materials are being consumed.
.B "Our launch window will close."
.\" ----------
.P
.B "How long do we have?"
It is anyone's guess.
I think no more than fifty years.
Possibly much less.
After that \(em
no one, no group, will have the resources, the time, the energy,
to spare on expanding into space.
(Historically we have always avoided permanent decline.
One nation's fall has been another's rise.
Room and raw materials have always been available somewhere.
But we have never been so interconnected, interdependent, crowded,
and dependent on technology as we are now.
I hope I am wrong, but what if I am right?)
.\" ----------
.P
The Dream might survive,
but as an escapist fantasy on a crowded world become a prison.
A world of inmates bound by gravity's bars.
.\" ----------
.P
.B "Imagine it."
Nine billion years for Earth.
An eighty year launch window for humanity.
Now
.B that
is the big picture.
Perhaps, in the long run, it is the only view that matters.
.\" ----------
.P
.B "Now is our species' crux move."
Our one shot at virtually infinite wealth and discovery.
We can pursue the Great Adventure.
Or we can fritter away our opportunity \(em
and wake up one day to discover it's too late.
We can let our launch window close.
.B "Which do we choose?"
@EOF
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    SOME RESPONSES TO "HUMANITY'S LAUNCH WINDOW"


    By Alan Silverstein
    Last update:  910306


    Below are some responses to an earlier draft of my essay.  I
    received them by electronic mail and got permission to edit and
    distribute them.  I removed the authors' names so they can
    remain anonymous.  I was quite impressed by the thoughfulness
    and eloquence of the replies.

    The general theme of the rejoinders is:  I am overly pessimistic
    in asserting that humanity's launch window will close soon, if
    at all.  Perhaps.  I hope so.  Only time will tell.

    I will feel my effort was worthwhile if the concept of a "launch
    window", that *might* close, becomes a common and widespread
    idea.  The point of the essay is to spread the idea, in the
    hopes of it motivating people to action.

    Now, some opposing viewpoints.
    ________________

    I have to say that I do not agree with your assessment that
    humanity has only 50 years (or thereabouts) to make it into
    space.

    The problem is that you lump the human population of the earth
    into one unit, and call it "humanity".  The earth is, for better
    or worse, very divided.  It is divided into 200+ nations, which
    are in turn divided into regions (states, republics, etc.),
    cities, and so on.  The economies of all of these divided parts
    of the earth are always in a constant state of fluctuation.
    There are some very rich nations, and some very poor nations.
    There are also some nations that are getting richer, and some
    that are getting poorer.  Some are getting more advanced
    technologically, while some are decreasing in technological
    capability.

    Right now, the U.S. has the biggest economy in the world.  You
    would probably assume that it is entirely up to us to get
    humanity off of the planet.  This is not necessarily so.  To
    pull an example from history, Spain was the first country to
    start colonizing the New World.  However, the development of the
    New World was not entirely up to Spain.  When Spain eventually
    became a less effective world power, England took over and
    started colonizing.

    What I am trying to say is that, even if we (the U.S.) do not
    succeed in putting colonies on other planets, there will always
    be other nations that can step into our place and take over the
    job...

    [ajs:  That is where I disagree.  I think we are all linked in a
    complex, relatively fragile web, a network of infrastructure and
    interdependencies.  I don't think it will always be true that
    some other nation can take over.  Maybe in 20 years.  But in 50?
    With a crowded, polluted *world* dwindling in resources?
    Possibly facing various global disasters like greenhouse or UV?]

    It may well be that we are the Spain of the Space Age, to
    eventually be succeeded by some other country (the European
    community, perhaps) which will put colonies on other planets.
    This does not really matter.  What does matter is that there
    will always be rich nations capable of building space programs.

    I do not think that the world, as a whole, will ever become so
    poor that no nations would be capable of space travel.  The
    world as a whole is getting more advanced technologically, and
    there are no signs that technological progress is starting to
    slow down.  Even if some nations grow poorer, others will always
    grow richer, and the overall level of technology for the entire
    world will always be one of steady progress.  This is the result
    of the divided economies of our world.
    ________________

    If you truly believe that our launch window will only last 50
    years, then it is not only a good idea, but also a
    responsibility to our descendents for you to write your essay
    and get it spread as far as you can.  To both common people and
    to Those Who Make Things Happen.  Even if our window is only
    measured in hundreds of years you should do this...
    ________________

    I think that your premise is wrong.  The notion that humanity
    has reached the peak of economic growth is, of course, very
    depressing, so I have a good psychological reason to ignore the
    truth.  On the flip side, I think the "Limits to Growth" crowd
    are using the cry "we are poorer than we think" as a way to call
    attention to their particular agenda.  One approach to search
    for the truth would be to make an honest attempt to model
    economic trends; unfortunately this must contain many
    assumptions, so it will usually wind up reflecting the modeler's
    world view; and the exercise gives us outsiders mostly
    information about the guy's politics.  Another approach is to
    look back over history and say "on average, we are richer each
    year than the the year before, so long term we will be
    arbitrarily wealthy".  This might be reason for hope, but is not
    conclusive, since it will be true right up until the downturn.

    I think our millenium still has a long suit in technology, which
    I expect to cure most of our present ills.
    ________________

    I just see no evidence presented that the launch window is 80
    years rather than 80,000 or 80,000,000.  Like you say, it's
    anyone's guess, so why should we believe yours?  That, I think,
    is the weak point of the essay.

    You assert that availability of resources, time, energy will
    somehow decline in the future.  Since this is in direct
    contradiction of the trend of all human history, you need to
    support this assertion.

    Sure, the Earth is crowded, and this may become a crisis in the
    near future, but demographic studies show that with higher
    technology, more wealth, and better opportunity, birth rates
    decline.  Look at Europe vs.  the third world.  Are you
    projecting a decline in technology, a dark age?  It is possible,
    but civilization has had several already, and always recovers.

    And sure, we are using up some resources, but there's no
    projected critical shortage of any necessary raw material for
    hundreds of years.  (There was a Scientific American article on
    this a couple of years ago) For the farther future, it is likely
    that we can make much better use of common resources (hydrogen
    fusion, solar power).  Where do you get 50 years from?

    [ajs:  I get it from intuition -- that is, my unconscious mental
    processing of the sum of all things I know.  Very much a
    subjective estimate.]

    The first part of your essay takes a very long perspective -
    billions of years; but then you inexplicably become very myopic
    and talk as if history were about to end.  Maybe you have good
    reasons for thinking this, but they are not convincingly stated.

    Sorry if I am being too hard on your essay.  I agree with its
    goals, but I think you need more facts and less emotionalism.  I
    encourage you to continue.

    [ajs:  I considered this feedback.  I decided my goal was not to
    write "yet another" technical article.  My emotions were what
    motivated me to write this essay.  It is and shall remain an
    emotional appeal, not a research paper.  Perhaps many will
    disagree with its premises; so be it.]
@EOF
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then
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------------------------------

Date: 7 Mar 91 14:20:18 GMT
From: convex![e-mail]  (John Hyde)
Subject: Not about space (sorry)

I'm writing a term paper for a class, the title of which will be
something like "Email and Electronic Bulletin Boards:  Present and
Future Effects on Society."  I would like to make the case that these
two media have the potential to have as much effect on the world as
the printing press did, due to the incredible speed and flexibility
which they offer in message transmission.

I am looking for specific examples of how email or electronic bulletin
boards have already influenced events in society.  Two come to mind:

1.  The announcement of "cold fusion" was made before confirmatory
expriments could be run, because news was leaking out via email, and
they feared that someone else would make the announcement first;

2.  The movie Star Trek VI was originally going to be done with young
actors playing the roles of the familiar characters, set at Starfleet
Academy.  Word spread instantly through the net, a letter writing
campaign was initiated, and the idea was scrapped.  Eventually a
better script, using the original actors, was written, and the movie
is soon to begin filming.

The more that the effects have occurred on a macro scale, the better.
If the experience is not firsthand, then a source will be needed (I
need to include at least three references in the bibliography).  A
simple listing of relevant books or magazine articles would also be
acceptable.

Please email replies to [e-mail].

Thanks for your help.

--
-John C. Hyde     |"Only a brave person is willing honestly to admit,
          |and fearlessly to face, what a sincere and logical
          |mind discovers."        -Rodan of Alexandria

------------------------------

End of SPACE Digest V13 #248
*******************